Carson Hocevar: NASCAR's Unluckiest Driver
- mtrsprtstoday
- 7 days ago
- 4 min read
Eddie Kalegi - Staff Writer
As we approach the midway point of NASCAR’s 2025 season, one common thread through the first four months has been streaks of poor results for fast cars. There are several drivers in the Cup Series grid that are perennial contenders for victories, but for a variety of reasons, just can’t seem to close the deal. This begs the question that we attempted to answer on Monday’s episode of Motorsports Today; who is NASCAR’s unluckiest driver right now?
Some argue Ryan Blaney, and while his string of DNF’s was undoubtedly deflating early in the year, the 2023 champion has turned things around as of late, and is playoff bound after his win at Nashville Superspeedway, which in my mind, takes him out of this conversation. William Byron has led the most laps on three separate occasions in the last two months, and has failed to cross the finish line first each time. Although this might seem unlucky from an outsider’s perspective, Byron’s late-race unraveling has been a result of several factors, including poor execution, questionable strategy calls from crew chief Rudy Fugle, and an inability to make any headway in dirty air, so I can’t call him the unluckiest either. And Byron’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate Alex Bowman also fits the bill for some, but he doesn’t really have winning pace on a consistent basis, so I don’t believe his tough luck has proven as consequential.
With those drivers eliminated from consideration, one remains. That is NASCAR’s clear cut unluckiest driver, second year emerging star Carson Hocevar.
The 22 year-old Portage, Michigan native sits 18th in points with 12 races left in the regular season, which is shockingly low given the speed he has had on a weekly basis in his #77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet. Hocevar could easily have entered the series’ trip south of the border to Mexico City with four top fives in his last five races, but has just a single finish in the top half of the field to show for it.
A strong run at Texas Motor Speedway was derailed by pit road issues, miring the second-year driver deep in the field for a restart, where he misjudged turn 2 and collided with Ryan Preece, sending both into the outside wall on the backstretch. Then at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Hocevar kept his nose clean and had climbed from a 39th place starting spot to third when his engine expired with less than 100 laps to go. And most recently in his home at Michigan International Speedway, Hocevar was leading and saving fuel in the final laps when he cut down a tire, having to pit and ultimately having to settle for a 29th place finish.
Hocevar’s rotten luck preceded this stretch as well. He had a top five run going at Bristol Motor Speedway before a poor final pit stop relegated him to 11th. He also could have been playoff bound earlier this season at Echo Park Speedway in Atlanta, but a caution flew on the final lap, freezing the field and holding Hocevar to a career-best second, which he equalled at Nashville two weeks ago.
Yes, some of Carson Hocevar’s undoing has been his aggressive driving, particularly making bold moves in unnecessary moments that have ruined races for himself and others, but he’s getting better and his speed is undeniable. Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, and Ty Gibbs faced similar scrutiny for their uber-aggression early in their respective Cup Series careers, but with time, have all found a way to harness those tendencies and be more selective behind the wheel. That time is coming for Carson Hocevar.
That being said, the problem for NASCAR’s defending ‘Rookie of the Year’ is that he feels the need to be aggressive because of his current points situation. Had he gotten a victory, which he’s had at least three chances at this season already, he wouldn’t need to take as many risks, with his playoff future already set. But that hasn’t happened, largely due to situations beyond he or his team’s control, despite having the speed and the talent to get the job done. That is the epitome of unluckiness in NASCAR’s premier division.
Can he turn it around? If the last three weeks are any indication, then the answer is absolutely yes. Hocevar is right there with the Hendrick Motorsports quartet among the sport’s fastest Chevrolet drivers, is consistently outperforming his Spire teammates Michael McDowell and Justin Haley (neither of whom are slouches in any right), and has one of the most underrated crew chiefs atop the box in Luke Lambert. Yes, the same Luke Lambert that guided Ryan Newman on his improbable run to the “Championship 4” back in 2014.
The pieces are there. The speed is there. The race craft is improving. However, at this current moment, lady luck is not treating Carson Hocevar well. Time will tell if that will change.
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